Liverpool find themselves in the heat of a top-four race for Champions League football next-season – but how likely are they to achieve the feat?
Liverpool have (and have had) a generous run-in, with only West Ham (A) and Middlesbrough (H) left to go, which should be a comfortable six points.
However, as mentioned in prior posts Liverpool’s weakness is fighting for the wins against lower league opposition, which means there is a high chance Liverpool walk away with only three, maybe even two points from the last two fixtures.
Comparing the final fixtures of the season amongst Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United:
- Arsenal – Southampton (A), Stoke (A), Sunderland (H) and Everton (H)
- City – Leicester (H), West Brom (H) and Watford (A)
- United – Tottenham (A), Southampton (A) and Crystal Palace (H)
We can see that Liverpool have a favourable finish to the season, with United expected to drop points at Tottenham and Arsenal bound to drop points somewhere along the process.
City could also be seen as having a kind run-in however all three teams are of similar quality, and I doubt they will reap a full nine points but should get at least six.
Judging by these fixtures alone, I believe Liverpool will finish 4th, behind Manchester City.
United will drop points at Tottenham and focus on the Europa League (for which the prize is Champions League qualification) therefore rest key players and potentially drop points.
Also although the fixtures are somewhat kind to Arsenal, chances of them winning all four fixtures are unlikely and if they do, all Liverpool will need is four points from the two games as they have a favourable (+5) goal difference.
Should Liverpool fail to qualify for the Champions League, it’ll be upsetting for Liverpool because at the start of the season, they were title-contenders and if it weren’t for a truly poor January, they could still have been up there.